Livelihoods and Policy Research

Climate Change and Scenario Modelling

Using participatory modelling techniques, explore future options and strategies to manage social-ecological systems, adapt to changing landscapes, and examine trade-offs between economic development and the conservation of nature. This research focus also examines the implications of climate change on social, economic, and natural capital.

Active research programmes in climate change and scenario modelling include:

• Livelihoods and Landscapes
• NT Government climate change strategy
• Scenario planning for climate change in tropical landscapes
• Scenario evaluation Stella models
• Integrated scenario planning across shared landscapes: A territory-wide approach

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Livelihoods and Landscapes (Collaboration with IUCN)

Project team: Neil Collier

Funding: IUCN, CIFOR

There are substantial pressures on global forest resources including timber extraction, subsistence slash and burn agriculture, and clearing for large scale crop production such as oil palm. This project is investigating how forests can be managed for the dual purposes of conserving biodiversity and improving the well being of rural people who rely on the forests for their livelihoods. Neil is conducting scenario modelling with researchers from the IUCN (The World Conservation Union) on part of a global project examining how sustainable management and use of forests can improve the livelihoods of rural poor people. He will travel to Papua, Indonesia to conduct fieldwork and modelling during 2008.

Northern Territory Government Climate Change Strategy

Project team: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, Jeremy Russell-Smith, Stephen Garnett

Funding: Northern Territory Department of the Chief Minister

The Northern Territory Government is currently developing a comprehensive policy position on climate change. To help them they engaged Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, in collaboration with Jeremy Russell-Smith and Stephen Garnett, to develop an Issues Paper http://www.nt.gov.au/dcm/legislation/climatechange/discussion.html to bring climate change matters before the NT community. Using this document, and in response to Commonwealth Government policy being developed over the next six months, the NTG will develop position papers and government policy.

Scenario Planning for Climate Change in Tropical Landscapes

Project Team: Stephen Garnett, Neil Collier, Javier Puig, Cindy Huchery, Ron Ninnis, Diane Pearson
Partners: WWF, Department of Natural Resources, Environment and the Arts
Funding: Natural Resource Management Board (NT)

Much of the Northern Territory's prosperity, social character, and future development rely on the use of natural resources. Climate change is very likely to impact many aspects of the Northern Territory if careful planning and action is not taken to both mitigate and adapt to change. This project will use scenario planning and modelling to explore the impacts of climate change on the societal and environmental aspects of the Northern Territory. Scenario modelling will be carried out in a participatory manner, with stakeholders from a wide range of sectors including business and economics, natural resource management, Indigenous communities and organisations, government agencies, and the scientific community. The project aims to develop realistic scenario models of future change to the Northern Territory so that planning and management across the NT can be prepared for a range of potential impacts from climate change.

Integrated Scenario Planning Across Shared Landscapes: A Territory-wide Approach

Project Team: Stephen Garnett, Bruce Campbell, Neil Collier, Diane Pearson, Hmalan Hunter-Xenie.

Funding: Natural Resource Management Board (NT)

The concept of shared landscapes is sometimes invoked in natural resource management and planning to address issues of multiple stakeholder uses for a ‘common’ resource or a portion of the natural landscape. This project will use scenario modelling and spatial analyses, using GIS, to formulate integrated strategies for the sustainable and efficient use of natural resources across the Northern Territory.