School for Environmental Research 
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Livelihoods and Policy Research

Climate Change and Scenario Modelling

Using participatory modelling techniques, explore future options and strategies to manage social-ecological systems, adapt to changing landscapes, and examine trade-offs between economic development and the conservation of nature. This research focus also examines the implications of climate change on social, economic, and natural capital.

Active research programmes in climate change and scenario modelling include:

Active PhD research projects include:

Some recently completed research programmes include:

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Climate Change Adaptation Networks

Project team: Stephen Garnett

Funding: ADAP

This project will contribute to the development of a national climate change adaptation strategy.

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Feral Animal Greenhouse Gas Production

Project team: Stephen Garnett

Please check back later for further information.

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Impact of Buffalo Control in Kakadu on Greenhouse Gas Production

Project team: Stephen Garnett

Funding: Parks and Wildlife Services

Please check back later for further information.

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Northern Territory Government Climate Change Strategy

Project team: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, Jeremy Russell-Smith, Stephen Garnett

Funding: Northern Territory Department of the Chief Minister

The Northern Territory Government is currently developing a comprehensive policy position on climate change. To help them they engaged Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, in collaboration with Jeremy Russell-Smith and Stephen Garnett, to develop an Issues Paper http://www.nt.gov.au/dcm/legislation/climatechange/discussion.html to bring climate change matters before the NT community. Using this document, and in response to Commonwealth Government policy being developed over the next six months, the NTG will develop position papers and government policy.

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Scenario Evaluation Stella Models

Project Team: Neil Collier

Funding: TRaCK

For more information about this project please visit: www.track.gov.au

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Recently completed research

Economic Assessment of Adaptation to Climate Change at Dhimurru IPA

Project team: Neil Collier, Kerstin Zander, Lisa Petheram

Partner: Dhimurru Land Management Aboriginal Corporation

Funding:CDU Research Panel Grant (2008-2009)

Aboriginal communities living within and around Dhimurru’s Indigenous Protected Area (IPA) in East Arnhem Land strongly rely on a hybrid economy revolving around traditional and non-traditional activities. Global environmental processes such as climate change are likely to alter this economic model. The proposed project uses market, non-market and participatory appraisals to explore how Aboriginal communities would adapt to these changes and how their economic, social and cultural welfare may be affected.


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Scoping Future Scenarios and Building Innovative Partnerships for Northern Territory Pastoral Lands.

Project team: Stephen Garnett, Neil Collier, Javier Puig, Cindy Huchery

Partner: NT Cattlemen's Association

Funding: Caring for our Country

The Northern Territory Pastoral Lands and the people who live in, manage and depend on them are facing a future full of promise of challenges, opportunities and threats, but most consistently and importantly, a future that will bring considerable change to both the land and the people. The Federal Government’s Caring for Country Program funded the project ‘Scoping future scenarios and building innovative partnerships for Northern Territory Pastoral Lands’, leaded by the Northern Territory Cattlemen’s Association. This project resulted on the Pastoral Properties Future Simulator and the development of recommendations and strategies aimed at ensuring a sustainable future for NT pastoral lands and pastoralists.

Interact with the Pastoral Futures Simulator here

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Scenario Planning for Climate Change in Tropical Landscapes

Project Team: Stephen Garnett, Neil Collier, Javier Puig, Cindy Huchery, Ron Ninnis, Diane Pearson
Partners: WWF, Department of Natural Resources, Environment and the Arts
Funding: Natural Resource Management Board (NT)

Much of the Northern Territory's prosperity, social character, and future development rely on the use of natural resources. Climate change is very likely to impact many aspects of the Northern Territory if careful planning and action is not taken to both mitigate and adapt to change. This project will use scenario planning and modelling to explore the impacts of climate change on the societal and environmental aspects of the Northern Territory. Scenario modelling will be carried out in a participatory manner, with stakeholders from a wide range of sectors including business and economics, natural resource management, Indigenous communities and organisations, government agencies, and the scientific community. The project aims to develop realistic scenario models of future change to the Northern Territory so that planning and management across the NT can be prepared for a range of potential impacts from climate change.

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Integrated Scenario Planning Across Shared Landscapes: A Territory-wide Approach

Project Team: Stephen Garnett, Bruce Campbell, Neil Collier, Diane Pearson, Hmalan Hunter-Xenie.

Funding: Natural Resource Management Board (NT)

The concept of shared landscapes is sometimes invoked in natural resource management and planning to address issues of multiple stakeholder uses for a ‘common’ resource or a portion of the natural landscape. This project will use scenario modelling and spatial analyses, using GIS, to formulate integrated strategies for the sustainable and efficient use of natural resources across the Northern Territory.

Interact with the Scenario Planning and Climate Change model here>>

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Scenario Planning and Climate Change for Alice Springs.

This product is a result of two research programmes of the Livelihood and Policy group, the "Scenario Planning for Climate Change in Tropical Landscapes" and the "Integrated Scenario Planning Across Shared Landscapes: A Territory-wide Approach.

Interact with the Scenario Planning and Climate Change model here>>

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