Research Themes and Major Projects

Territory population futures

Population projections and forecasts have a wide variety of uses amongst planners, policy-makers and researchers. The Northern Territory’s population is unique amongst the states and territories of Australia, particularly in regard to its large Indigenous population. Current population projection models do not distinguish Indigenous status. In addition, the Northern Territory does not have its own projection model, thereby preventing illustrative and hypothetical scenarios to be easily produced by Territory researchers and planners. This project involves the design of state-of-the-art multi state population projection software for the Northern Territory. It will incorporate Indigenous status, exogamy, inter-ethnic mobility, and regions within the Territory. Using the model, projections will be produced to explore different demographic scenarios for the Territory. Particular attention will be paid to population ageing and the changing size and structure of the Indigenous population. The project will go on to explore ex-post and ex-ante population forecast errors for the Territory.

Project team: Prof Tony Barnes

Partner: NT Treasury

Funding: CDU Demography Program

Duration: July 2005 - July 2008