World-first study uses First Nations calendars for solar power forecasting

The in-depth observations of First Nations seasonal calendars could be key to improving solar power forecasting, according to a world-first study by Charles Darwin University (CDU). 

The study combined First Nations seasonal calendars with a novel deep learning model, an artificial intelligence technique, to predict future solar panel power output.

Solar is one of the world’s leading renewable energy alternatives but there continues to be challenges with the technology’s reliability. 

At present, solar power generation is difficult to predict because of weather, atmospheric conditions and how much power is absorbed on a panel surface.

CDU researchers developed the model using the Tiwi, Gulumoerrgin (Larrakia), Kunwinjku and Ngurrungurrudjba First Nations calendars, and a modern calendar known as Red Centre. 

Researchers used data from the Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Center in Alice Springs, and the results show the model can predict solar power generation with a lower error rate. 

The error rate is less than half of the error rate that popular forecasting models used in the industry right now.

Co-author, CDU PhD student and Bundjalang man Luke Hamlin said the environmental knowledge held within these calendars was an invaluable resource. 

“Incorporating First Nations seasonal knowledge into solar power generation predictions can significantly enhance accuracy by aligning forecasts with natural cycles that have been observed and understood for thousands of years,” Mr Hamlin said,

“Unlike conventional calendar systems, these seasonal insights are deeply rooted in local ecological cues, such as plant and animal behaviours, which are closely tied to changes in sunlight and weather patterns. 

“By integrating this knowledge, predictions can be tailored to reflect more granular shifts in environmental conditions, leading to more precise and culturally informed forecasting for specific regions across Australia.”

Associate Professor in Information Technology Bharanidharan Shanmugam and Lecturer in Information Technology Dr Thuseethan Selvarajah, who are co-authors on this paper, said the combination of advanced Artificial Intelligence and ancient First Nations wisdom could revolutionise prediction technology. 

“Accurate solar power prediction is challenging, and these challenges hinder the development of a universal prediction model,” Associate Professor Shanmugam said. 

“The success of the proposed approach suggests that it could be a valuable tool for advancing solar power generation prediction in rural areas, and in future work we’ll explore the applications of the model to other regions and renewable energy sources,” Dr Selvarajah said.

Conv-Ensemble for Solar Power Prediction with First Nations Seasonal Information was published in IEEE Open Journal of the Computer Society.