Location-specific solutions needed to manage heat in global climate crisis

Place-specific strategies for adapting to increasing temperatures are crucial to keeping remote towns and communities across Northern Australia habitable, according to a recent study on the future impacts of climate change-intensified heat on people in the geographic edges of Australia.

The study by Charles Darwin University’s (CDU) Northern Institute focused on the impact of heat exposure, which is the leading factor for deaths across Northern Australia.

The modelling showed remote towns in northern Australia are projected to experience an average of 166 days over 35°C by the end of the 21^st century, up from 130 days in the 2020s.

Researchers analysed the impact of heat on population vulnerability through three areas: exposure to heat (warming), population volatility (declining), and population ageing (ageing).

Lead author and CDU Adjunct Research Fellow Dr David Karacsonyi said the results show more than half of remote towns in Northern Australia are vulnerable to warming, more than a third to declining, and around a quarter to ageing.

“These findings also highlight the need for place-based, socially informed adaptation strategies that address baseline demographic fragility and monitor changes in this over time,” Dr Karacsonyi said.

“Place-specific strategies should be aligned with regional development and public health and wellbeing policies, particularly in relation to health equity and socio-economic outcomes for Indigenous people.”

In the Northern Territory, a third of remote towns can be labelled as vulnerable to increasing temperatures. The impact of increasing heat is being acutely felt in many communities across Central Australia including Tennant Creek, Lajamanu, Hermannsburg, Ampilatwatja and Santa Teresa.

The number of hot days will more than double in and around the Top End of the Northern Territory by the end of the century. The region will also experience declines in the number of relatively cool and dry days between June and August.

In northern Queensland, there are significant differences in vulnerabilities between the far west of the state and coastal towns. 

Inland, towns such as Longreach, Blackall, Winton and Aramac experienced declining populations and increased warming, and the very remote town Bouila was vulnerable to population decline, warming and had a high proportion of residents 65 and over.

In comparison, most coastal towns experienced either none of the vulnerabilities, or declining populations and a high proportion of older residents respectively.

There were also disparaties in socio-economic outcomes, with residents in ageing towns being better equipped to afford housing designed to mitigate the impacts of heat, and less barriers to accessing healthcare and social services due to better service availability. 

Of note in Western Australia, 34 per cent of remote towns are projected to suffer from increasing heat, and simultaneously either vulnerable to ageing or population decline. 

Many towns in the Kimberley region such as Halls Creek, Kununurra and Wyndham were vulnerable to extreme temperatures. 

A combination of warming and population decline was prevalent in Indigenous communities and mining towns in the Pilbara region such as Meekatharra, Mount Newman, Paraburdoo and Tom Price.

At the edge of (un)inhabitability? Spatial diversity of demographic vulnerability to increasing heat exposure across remote towns of Northern Australia by CDU’s Adjunct Research Fellow Dr David Karacsonyi, Senior Research Fellow Professor Andrew Taylor, and Senior Research Fellow Professor Kerstin Zander was published in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.